Macroeconomic policies: can we transfer lessons across LDC's?
LDC’s have provided the economic profession with a wide range of macroeconomic experiences. Many are experiences of failure, a few of success. It is my belief that useful lessons can be obtained from all those experiences. Contrary to the widely held belief that it is not possible to transfer to LDC’s theories and policies designed for Developed Countries, I hold the position that there is only one body of economic theory and that the best policies apply to all patients and are, for most cases, the simplest: market rules, free trade, and orthodox monetary and fiscal policy. The numerous failed stabilization experiences of LDC’s teach us what should not be done. They also tell us what to expect from markets subject to macroeconomic mismanagement. High country risk premiums and currency substitution (dollarization) are two of the most common responses. They also tell us about the fundamental role of credibility for the viability of a set of macroeconomic policies. Credibility is built on fundamentals and experience. Governments that have repeatedly fooled their populations in the past find they must pay much higher adjustment costs when they decide to follow the right policies. LDC’s by definition lack enough savings and need foreign capital to develop. They also need to follow the right policies. In previous decades, while institutional capital was flowing in, some could afford to use it to finance the wrong policies. Nowadays the big difference is that while LDC’s continue to need investment, they are already in debt and private creditors are reluctant to continue financing without a much stricter scrutiny of the policies being followed. Highly indebted countries following the wrong policies are punished twice: one by the wrong policies and another by investors taking away their money. The flight to quality experienced during the last crisis hit drastically the LDC’s by raising to unprecedented levels the interest rates at which they should roll-over their debts. Nowadays, more than ever, it is imperative for LDC’s to instrument the correct macroeconomic policies. This paper focuses on several topics related to macroeconomic policies in LDC’s. The selection is biased towards those cases I have dealt with during my last 20 years of professional experience, home based in Argentina. Inflation, dollarization, quasi-fiscal deficits, capital controls and stabilization policies are old friends of Latin-Americans.Currency Boards, Common Markets, Lender of Last Resort and Country Risk are newer concepts that have taken special relevance in the 90’s, the decade of globalization.